Taliban: batch 2 graduates

Five years after 9/11 brought back Afghanistan to international attention and led to the ouster of the Taliban regime, that initial success remains the only best memory.
India, which felt vindicated as US-led Coalition Forces blasted past every Taliban bastion then, is deeply concerned today. Because the Taliban are on the revival path and again, the warnings are being overlooked. Couple with that the recent agreement between the Pakistan government and tribes in Waziristan and this, sources say, is turning into a recipe for disaster.
India is all set to raise the issue in the United Nations and with world powers.
Since last year, there have been 52 suicide attacks, 36 incidents of kidnapping, 264 mine and 122 rocket attacks in Afghanistan. In the last eight months, nearly 2,000 people have been killed, including Taliban forces.

While this is alarming, what has truly raised concern levels in New Delhi over the past couple of months is the organised manner in which Taliban are now orchestrating attacks. There are no more short raids, but groups numbering 70-100 (on some occasions 150) launching conventional offensive operations against coalition forces.
For India, this is almost a replay of what happened in the early 1990s when the Taliban sought to capture territory, which it did successfully gaining control over most of Afghanistan. While this time they are up against formidable Western forces, the fact is that these troops fight a holding battle from their locations and much is relied on air raids to silence any attack.
There have been instances of Taliban taking over villages and imposing their diktats for a few days and then being repulsed by NATO or Coalition Forces. The conventional method of fighting directed at capturing territory is what is worrying with the Gilzai tribe — traditional cadre of Taliban — in the South and South-East being most active.

The attacks are currently concentrated in Kandahar and Helmand provinces. They have increased in the past few months after the 4,500 US troops were replaced by NATO led forces.
The psychological effect of US troops leaving the place, sources say, is visible in the kind of bold attacks launched by Taliban forces.
The reasons:
• NATO Forces have different rules of engagement that allow for more defensive combat than being pro-active in going after Taliban positions.
• The expanding base in Pakistan (around Quetta) has given opportunity to reorganise and plan.’
• The provincial reconstruction teams, also comprising NATO forces, are guided more by national policy of the respective country than by the NATO/ISAF doctrine.
• Record poppy cultivation has encouraged the drug economy that lies at the heart of Taliban’s funding strategy.
There is no doubt in India that Taliban will get bolder and try to execute more ambitious plans in the South. And while this is imminent, grounds are being prepared in Pakistan’s Waziristan area from where troops would be withdrawn under the agreement worked out by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf.
Though Musharraf claims that the Durand Line will remain sacrosanct, there are not many takers for the promise in India. Unlike the Taliban dominated South and South-East Afghanistan, sources say, this area is shared with Al-Qaeda cadres.
The agreement provides space for reorganisation to take place, just like it happened 15 years ago. It was vital for Pakistan forces to withdraw if these designs are to fructify. This fact, sources say, is something US ground forces understand but clearly, officials here feel there is a “political disconnect” in Washington which has not objected to this move.
The logic given by the US is that it does not want to follow an “all stick, no carrot” policy with Pakistan. But beyond this, the bigger reality is the resurgence of Taliban as an organised and cohesive battle machine. All this while the project to raise an Afghan National Army refuses to evolve beyond its nascent stages and this does not augur well five years after 9/11.