The answer is no. The pakistan as a nation is based on two elements - Islam and its enmity towards India. Arguably every government in Pakistan has used both the elements without any prejudice. Every time pakistan has had internal problems - statistics prove that India is attacked some way or another.
Its simple, with India as an enemy everyone is united - so when evr you need a leader who can lead pakistan - he has to lead it against India.
Having said that at this point US is actively involved in pakistan, and at present while US wants pakistan to stabilize - it would hate to see India under attack.
What ios happening in Pakistan is a pre cursor to civil war, a cry of a society deeply divided on urban vs rural lines. The Rural - uneducated, unemployed, doctrined with Islam feels - Mullaism is the answer to all evil. Thje urban - almost westernised middle class yearns for realisation of American Dream.
In case things go out of hand in Pakistan, which Pakistani Military establishment would like (at least some elemst of it) - India can expect sudden heating up of border issues. At the same time if the urban middle class comes together - its going to challenge the Military Establihmnet (like it did in lawyer agitations), again the history and logic says India will be attacked.
In other words India may be attacked in either case.
It is in India's interest to act.
so what can Indian do?
Multiple things like -
Its simple, with India as an enemy everyone is united - so when evr you need a leader who can lead pakistan - he has to lead it against India.
Having said that at this point US is actively involved in pakistan, and at present while US wants pakistan to stabilize - it would hate to see India under attack.
What ios happening in Pakistan is a pre cursor to civil war, a cry of a society deeply divided on urban vs rural lines. The Rural - uneducated, unemployed, doctrined with Islam feels - Mullaism is the answer to all evil. Thje urban - almost westernised middle class yearns for realisation of American Dream.
In case things go out of hand in Pakistan, which Pakistani Military establishment would like (at least some elemst of it) - India can expect sudden heating up of border issues. At the same time if the urban middle class comes together - its going to challenge the Military Establihmnet (like it did in lawyer agitations), again the history and logic says India will be attacked.
In other words India may be attacked in either case.
It is in India's interest to act.
so what can Indian do?
Multiple things like -
- financing PPP - to get into a strong situation - so much so that any attck on India less than a war is meaningless
- Supporting Hamid Karzai at the same time. Give afgans overwelming poweress to defeat Taleban ranks - there by thinning Mujahideen lines and giving PPP a chance
- Expose Army dealings with Mujahideen in west - engage Army in a PR war, reducing their willingness to engage India in a proxy war
- Engage Nawaz Sharif - poor chap is sidelined, but still has a good powerbase in Pakistan. He can help in engaging entire pakistan in a process that is democratic and self engaging. as such we may seed some good faith
- Not towing US lines of keeping Musharaff in power. Musharaff or no Musharaff ... Pakistan army has a good chain of command and can survive loss of any individual. By supporting Musharraff we may give his crownies shield to attack us.
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